“Normal” for Texas Surpasses the Warmest Years of the Dust Bowl and the Drought of Record

Unless you’ve been living under an air-conditioned rock, you might have noticed it has been getting warmer in Texas. Anyone who has been in Texas for more than a minute has surely felt the temperature rising – ample reason for us all to get “All Shook Up.” I’ve lived in the Lone Star State since February 1991, and it has definitely gotten warmer. Heck, in the 1990s, you could count on a sleet storm before Thanksgiving in Central Texas. Nowadays, when my beauty stylist asks me if I want to maintain my summer cut for November, the answer is a begrudging “Yes.”

For a while, Texas was part of a mid-continental warming hole, so we weren’t warming as fast as the rest of the country. However, someone walked by, mumbled “Forgot to turn on the oven…,” and turned up the dial. Since about 1985, average annual temperatures in Texas have been trending ever upwards. In fact, our new “normal” baseline temperature is warmer than the warmest year on record as measured between 1895 (the year of the automobile) and 1975 (the year Bill Gates founded Microsoft). I put “normal” in quotes because this is really the new abnormal. “Normal” suggests we’ve reached a new plateau, but temperatures are still scaling the cliffs to the top of some unknown mesa.

Figure 1: Average annual temperature in Texas from 1895 through 2023 (from NCEI).

Our long-term annual average, as measured between 1895 and 1975, is 64.6 ºF (Figure 1). During that same period, the highest average annual temperatures occurred in 1933 and 1954 (tied at 66.6 ºF). Our current baseline, as measured between 1975 and 2023, is 66.8 ºF.

Yikes.

And it’s gonna get worse. At the current rate, the baseline average annual temperature is rising at 0.6 ºF per decade, so ten years from now, we might be 2.8 ºF warmer, 25 years from now, we might be 3.7 ºF warmer, and 50 years from now, we might be 5.2 ºF warmer. Those numbers may seem small, but, when you look at a map of average annual temperatures across the state (Figure 2), a small change can mean a completely different landscape. And this year is in the running with 2023 to be the warmest on record.

Figure 2: Average annual temperature from 1981 to 2010 (from the 2012 State Water Plan)

Increasing temperatures have increasing impacts on our water resources. Higher temperatures mean higher rates of evaporation, higher water uptake by plants, and decreased soil moisture. Less soil moisture means less water running off the land surface to our streams, rivers, and lakes and less water recharging our aquifers. If that doesn’t get you hot under your collar, then nothing in the well will.

These increases are statewide. The plots below show temperature trends for a number of counties across the state. “Heat island effect,” you say? Sure, but the temperatures are rising in every county, urban and rural, in the state.

Has it been getting warmer where you’re at? Check out your location here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series